Population and Household Projections

In the Housing Sections of the Spatial Options consultation document we make reference to trend based population and household projections. This briefing provides background on these projections and web links to further information.

Trend based population forecasts for the Region and the individual Local Authorities are produced by the Office of National Statistics (ONS) under the auspices of the UK Statistics Authority. These projections are produced at two yearly intervals; the most recent forecast is the 2006-based series published earlier this year.

Trend based household forecasts are produced by the Department for Communities and Local Government (CLG) and are based on the ONS population projections. There is normally a delay between the publication of population projections and the corresponding household projections. The 2006-based household projections have not yet been published; their publication date is expected to be spring 2009.

Both trend based population and trend based household projections provide valuable evidence that helps us in developing policy in the Regional Spatial Strategy, particularly for housing provision. However it is important to bear in mind that these projections are based on past trends so they cannot take account of current and future policies. For example, changes in national policy on in-migration could well change the scale and pattern of population growth in the region.

Because trends can be changed by policy interventions we need to test the efficacy of the assumptions that have informed these trend based forecasts. If you have views and evidence that will help us test the assumptions please include it in your response to the Spatial Options consultation.

The 2006 Based Population Projections

The Spatial Options consultation document highlights a very significant projected increase in the Region’s population. The 2004-based projection forecast a growth of 539,000 with the Region’s population reaching 5,664,000 by 2026. The 2006-based projection now forecasts a growth of 959,000 with the Region’s population reaching 6,101,000 by 2026.

This increase is a consequence of: -

• Changes in migration, including an improved system for analysing the effects of migration.
• Increased fertility rates leading to more children in the population
• People living longer

For further Information on population projections please go to the ONS web site – link below

http://www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/Product.asp?vlnk=997

The 2006 Based Household Projections

The most recent official household projections published by CLG are the 2004-based figures. These projections are used in the approved RSS published in May 2008. In the absence of new projections based on the 2006 population projections the Assembly has asked Experian to provide an estimate as part of a wider piece of work they are carrying out on economic performance and housing (see separate entry on the web site). This estimate uses the same methodology and assumptions as will be used by CLG. This means it should be quite close to the official figures that will be published next spring. The estimate shows that 633,000 additional households will form by 2026 compared to 467,000 forecast in the 2004 based projections.

Further information on household projections

http://www.communities.gov.uk/housing/housingresearch/housingstatistics/housingstatisticsby/householdestimates/

If you have any questions or wish to discuss this briefing, please contact Andy Haigh by phoning 01924 331 555 or emailing andy.haigh@yhassembly.gov.uk